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Ben-Yishai reports Trump froze the Iran and Gaza files until November

Times of Palestine

Ben-Yishai reports Trump froze the Iran and Gaza files until November

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The Trump administration has decided to freeze every Middle East arena until after the American midterm elections on November 8, and probably until Israel's own vote has produced a government, the military analyst Ron Ben-Yishai reported Tuesday in the Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth.

In his telling, Washington concluded that negotiating with Tehran will yield nothing soon and switched to slow economic strangulation — sanctions enforcement and the naval blockade — while the Pentagon races to rebuild missile stocks drained by two rounds of war with Iran.

Ben-Yishai lists four reasons. Trump wants his congressional majorities kept, which means three months without coffins or four-dollar gasoline.

Washington also concluded that Revolutionary Guard hardliners read American restraint as weakness, until even Vice President J.D. Vance saw no point negotiating with the current regime. On Israel's advice, he writes, the administration hopes economic collapse threatens the regime's survival within months. And the arsenal must be restocked in case China moves on Taiwan.

The one exception is oil: Washington will let Iran and Oman strike any Hormuz arrangement, provided no ship pays Tehran a transit fee.

On Gaza, Ben-Yishai separates two tracks. Behind the yellow line, work is under way on a screened pilot neighbourhood for Palestinians between Khan Younis and Rafah, and on a camp north of Rafah for the multinational force, coordinated between the Israeli army, the US command at Kiryat Gat and the Board of Peace.

The 15-point roadmap is the dispute. Israel demands Hamas disarm fully before any withdrawal; Nikolay Mladenov's Board proposes phased disarmament with American-led verification. Netanyahu called that unacceptable on Monday — and Washington, Ben-Yishai notes, has said nothing at all.