Israeli Press
Taub Center warns small parties need 195,000 votes to enter the Knesset
Graphic: Times of Palestine
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Israel's electoral threshold is about to cost more votes than it ever has, according to an analysis by the Taub Center that the Israeli news site Ynet published on Monday.
The threshold is a percentage, not a number, so it rises with the roll. Israel had 6.789 million eligible voters in November 2022 and will have roughly 7.561 million by October. Professor Alex Weinreb, who wrote the analysis, calculates that a party will need about 171,000 votes to enter the Knesset if turnout reaches 70 percent, 183,000 at 75 percent and 195,000 at 80 percent, against roughly 155,000 last time.
"If your party cannot guarantee the support of at least 200,000 voters, do the right thing and withdraw from the race," Weinreb wrote. Every one percent of turnout moves the bar by about 2,240 votes.
His warning is addressed to the small Zionist lists — Tropper and Hendel, Gantz, Erdan and Edelstein — but the rule falls hardest on the Arab lists, which run in a community whose turnout is volatile and whose vote splits between Ra'am and Hadash-Ta'al.
Palestinian citizens of Israel have paid this bill before. In 2022 Balad fell below the line and the roughly 138,000 votes cast for it elected nobody.
In that election almost 420,000 votes in total, the equivalent of ten seats, went to parties that did not cross.
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